The Decision Intelligence Handbook by L. Y. Pratt and N. E. Malcolm

Author:L. Y. Pratt and N. E. Malcolm
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: O'Reilly Media, Inc.
Published: 2023-06-21T00:00:00+00:00

Figure 5-1. The Decision Reasoning phase includes Process C1, Decision Simulation (this chapter), and Process C2, Decision Assessment (Chapter 6).

When you’re done with the Decision Reasoning phase, you’ll be ready to take action in the real world (Chapter 7).

Decision Simulation Process Overview

Not everyone likes a CDD. Some end users need to see more: they prefer elements that move, and to have a chance to interact with a tool, not to study a diagram. As this section describes in more detail, one customer of ours was very cool on every CDD we showed them. But when we rendered it into a very simple simulation, it was like a lightbulb went on: “Now I understand!” The challenge is that it’s not always obvious in advance who likes what.

An automated decision simulation is a computer-supported system that helps you to determine the most likely outcomes from a set of actions and/or the best actions to achieve certain objectives. When we want to determine likely outcomes, we often build an interactive visualization that lets users set up a specific scenario by selecting levers and external assumptions, then observe the results. Interactive visualizations are very helpful in demonstrating decision dynamics quickly. (See Quantellia’s Live Model Gallery for some examples; also Microsoft Excel’s Solver technology addresses this task for simple decisions that are small enough to be solved on a desktop computer.)

Our experience working with a big US company is a case in point. Its decision-making challenge was what to do about its aging buildings, some of which had been around since the 1950s. The buildings in question included laboratories, engineering facilities, and traditional offices. Many were underused and undermaintained. Covid-19 further complicated matters: the old buildings’ layouts and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems made employees vulnerable to the virus. Many had begun working from home, reducing demand for building space.

While this task seemed rather bureaucratic and unexciting, the decision would have a massive financial impact. The company asked us to help.

At the project’s start—as is often standard practice—the decision makers were using an assortment of key process indicators (KPIs). During the Decision Framing process, we helped them refine their KPIs into the following measurable objectives:

Reduce annual operations and maintenance (O&M) by 4% per year for the next three years

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